Michigan - Michigan State preview

Posted By: The Rookie

Storylines: This is the most important Michigan – Michigan State game in a very long time, as this game is huge for both programs. Michigan needs a win to validate their season thus far, having played a respectable schedule to this point, but lacking a truly quality win thus far. Michigan State, on the other hand, proved to the country last week that they were for real threats for the Big-10 title with an impressive win at home against Wisconsin.

On one side of the ball is the most exciting player in college football, Denard Robinson, the quarterback of the prolific Michigan offense. The Wolverines are averaging 41.4 points per game, and Robinson is a big part of that. He has already led 2 game winning touchdown drives on the road, proving that he is not only extremely athletic, but he is clutch as well. He has an insane arsenal of weapons, running backs Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw are both very good in their own right, and he has a wide array of capable wide receivers – led by Junior Hemmingway, Roy Roundtree and Martavius Odoms.

However, as impressive as the Michigan offense has been, the Michigan defense has been equally abysmal. An extreme lack of talent, coupled with a truly asinine scheme (the 3-3-5 is the dumbest defensive strategy on the planet), has led to that unit being embarrassed each and every week. Every opponent they have faced has gashed them for yardage and points, and that unit almost allowed a second D-1AA school to pull off an upset in Ann Arbor.

The best news of the week for the Spartans comes from their coach. After suffering a heart attack following a gutsy win in OT against Notre Dame, doctors found a blood clot in his leg last weekend, causing him to miss the Wisconsin game. However, he will be in attendance this weekend for the Spartans, coaching from the press box. “As long as I don’t have a setback, that’s where I will be,” he said on Tuesday. ‘I feel outstanding…I was restricted because of the clot, so all day Sunday and all day Monday I watched film.”

So the stage is set, and on the line is national legitimacy for both programs. These two rivals have met 102 times with the Wolverines holding a hefty 67-30-5 advantage in the series. The last time the game was in Ann Arbor, the Spartans won for the first time in 18 years, knocking off the Wolverines 35-21. Last year, in East Lansing, Michigan State shook off a late game collapse to pull out a thrilling 26-20 overtime win. The ironic fact remains that the Spartans are still viewed as the second best program in the state, even though they have had a better record than Michigan the last two years and have beaten them the last two years. A win this weekend could vault them into national prominence and bring the two programs to status equality in the eyes of the nation. Can “little brother” take big brother down for good?

Analysis:

- Michigan Offense vs Michigan State Defense: It is no secret that Denard Robinson has been the most dynamic player in the country thus far into the season. The numbers he is putting up can only be described as gaudy. He has completed 69.8% of his passes for 1008 yards and 7 touchdowns with only one interception, giving him a quarterback rating of 180, good for 3^rd best in the NCAA. Oh and lets not forget that he has also rushed for 905 yards and 8 touchdowns (most in the NCAA) while averaging a massive 9.2 yards per rush. Michigan State has a respectable defense, 41^st nationally giving up 328.6 yards per game, but they won’t be able to stop Michigan’s offense as long as Robinson is at the helm. Edge: Michigan

- Michigan State offense vs Michigan Defense: While no one would define the methodical rushing attack of the Spartans as explosive, they are certainly efficient and effective. They are the #18 rushing team in the country, gaining 1101 yards over 5 games, utilizing the two headed monster of Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell (536 and 471 yards respectively) to grind teams into submission. Cousins has been effective through the air as well, completing 67.5% of his passes for 1132 yards and 9 touchdowns with 4 INT. Meanwhile Michigan’s defense has been atrocious, and that is putting it gently. They are dead last (ranked 120) in the country in pass defense and 102 in overall defense. Should be a great day at the office for the Spartan offense. Edge: Michigan State

- Special Teams: Michigan has some serious kicking woes. They are 1/5 on field goals attempted this year and have already missed an extra point and had a punt blocked. MSU has a solid kicking game, even if Treadwell refused to utilize it last week against Wisconsin. Keyshawn Martin is an explosive returner, but Darryl Stonum is equally dangerous, rendering that matchup a wash. Edge: Michigan State

- Intangibles: Michigan will be out for blood after two straight losses to the Spartans, especially after the disappointment of last season. Also working in the Wolverines’ favor is the fact that this is the Spartans first road game of the year, while they have been able to win two difficult matchups on the road thus far. I wouldn’t want my first road test of the season to be in front of 113,000 fans. Dantonio hasn’t ever lost to Rich Rod but I’m not sure how effective he is going to be if he stays up in the press box. Edge: Michigan

At the end of the day its all going to come down to how well each defense will be able to contain the offense of their opponent, because both teams are going to score, and score a lot. The first mistake could be the most fatal one, and turnovers may be the only way the Michigan defense can stop the Michigan State offense. I just don’t think MSU has a quick enough defense to stop the offensive blitzkrieg that is the Michigan offense, and I don’t know if Cousins and the rest of the Michigan State offense can keep up in a track meet. If the Spartans are able to control the clock and keep Denard off the field, it may be a different game, but I think the Wolverines pull out a thriller in Ann Arbor. Prediction: Michigan Wolverines 42 Michigan State Spartans 35

5112 Q&A

This week we feature a Q&A between two old roommates in Couzens dormitory. He has questions, I have answers, and all things considered we make a pretty good team.

Q) What does Terrelle Pryor have to do to win the Heisman?

A) Interesting question. He is already getting a ton of hype from the media, which is critical in the quest for winning that trophy. If ESPN doesn’t love you, you don’t have much of a shot. It doesn’t hurt to be on the #2 team in the country, generally the best player on one of the two national championship teams is the one taking home the Heisman. A quick glance at the last ten years shows us that only Carson Palmer and Tim Tebow didn’t play for the national championship the year they won the Heisman. He has been putting up big numbers on the field, although more performances like the Illinois game can hurt him. He will need Cam Newton and Denard Robinson to get injured, drop off their production or start losing a significant amount of games. I think right now he has to be considered the favorite to win the Heisman, only because he is a high profile player on a very good team.

Q) Will Rich Rod win a national championship, Big-10 title, or Rose Bowl in his career? Could he be fired for not winning one of these?

A) Honestly I can’t say whether or not he will win any one of these at Michigan. I can’t even say for sure he will be the coach of this team at the end of this season. They have started off very well for the second year in a row, but lets not forget he went 1-7 last year in the Big-10, including a 0-6 stretch to close the season out. If he has a similar collapse this year (very possible with that defense) then he will end up out in the cold. However, if I had to pull out my crystal ball on Rich Rod, I would have to say I think he will win a Big-10 title in his time here, I don’t know about a national championship, he will need a much stronger defense. I believe he can win a Rose Bowl as well, as his offense would make him a much tougher opponent than the traditional Big-10 team that generally ends up in the Rose Bowl. And I don’t think he will get fired for not winning a national championship or Rose Bowl here (Bo lost in the Rose Bowl all the time and didn’t win a national championship) but I do believe he could get fired eventually for not winning a Big-10 title.

Q) Will Boise State become a BCS team? Will they be allowed to play for a National Championship?

A) I’m a little confused as to your question so I will answer both of the ways I’m interpreting it. If you’re asking whether or not Boise State will be in a BCS bowl this year, the answer is an unequivocal yes. They survived the toughest part of their schedule (VT and Oregon State), and the WAC is pretty weak this year, their two toughest games are vs. Fresno State and @ Nevada, neither of which are really powerhouse opponents (although Nevada is having a decent season thus far). If you are asking whether or not they will eventually join a BCS conference, that’s a bit more difficult to answer. I don’t think they will anytime soon, given that they are joining the Mountain West conference next year I believe, which makes that conference by far the best non BCS conference in the country (I would put the Mountain West with Utah, TCU, Boise State, Air Force and BYU against the Big East straight up this year and it wouldn’t be close as to who is a better conference). However, it sounds like TCU is thinking about joining the Big East, and Utah will be leaving the conference for the Pac-10. The whole thing is pretty convoluted, and when all is said and done I do think Boise will end up one of the mega conferences that seem to be on the verge of reshaping the NCAA.

As to your other question regarding the Broncos having a shot at the national championship, I think they could do it, but they will need some help. Their strength of schedule in the WAC is going to hurt them badly in the eyes of the national media. They will need 2 of the 3 teams ahead of them (Alabama, Oregon and Ohio State) to lose, and they will probably need TCU and Nebraska to lose as well, only because both are right behind Boise and have far more significant games left on their schedule (mark your calendar for the TCU – Utah game, its going to be great). If Virginia Tech manages to win the ACC it should help them immensely as well. However, if all those things fall into place, I believe they should be allowed to play for the national championship, because I think they are one of the best teams in the country, but I don’t know if anyone can beat Alabama this year.

Q) Can Michigan have a losing record and Denard Robinson still win the Heisman? If he becomes injured against a team like Iowa or Wisconsin, how badly will it hurt his Heisman chances, and can Michigan beat one of those teams without him? Do you see him playing in the NFL? If so, what position?

A) I’m going break this answer down into parts.

1) Given my earlier answer about Terrelle Pryor and how important being on a winning team is, the answer is pretty much no. Paul Hornung did it in 1956 on a 2-8 Notre Dame team, but that was back in the day when any halfway decent player on Notre Dame was immediately considered a Heisman contender. Now we have much greater exposure to all the athletes and it’s harder to overlook great performances. In order for the Wolverines to have a losing season they would have to go 0-7, and unless every game’s final score was 56-49 and Denard was averaging 200 yards rushing and passing (which is entirely possible with that defense, like I said before), he won’t win the Heisman with that record.

2) General consensus around the country right now is that Denard is the Heisman frontrunner – if he stays healthy. That statement alone pretty much sums up my answer. If he goes down in a big game then his chances of winning the Heisman drop significantly. Those defenses are big and hit hard, and he plays in a way that could very well lead to him being injured. Tate Forcer looked sharp in his relief against Bowling Green, and I honestly believe that he could lead this team to victory against a team like Iowa or Wisconsin, but he would need some help from the defense, because the offense won’t be nearly as explosive with him at he helm. He is a little more experienced, a little more mature and I think he is a little better at throwing the ball than Denard, and he can still hurt opposing defenses with his feet, he just lacks the game breaking speed that Robinson possesses.

3) I’m not sure exactly what will happen to Robinson when he graduates from Michigan. On the one hand, he is blazingly fast, so I could see him being used as combo back, somewhat akin to Reggie Bush, a fast, slashing rusher who is equally adept at coming out of the backfield catching passes. My initial thought was wide receiver, but he isn’t built like one (only standing around 6’0” and 185 pounds). I suppose a team like the Dolphins could take a flyer on him as a Wildcat type quarterback, but Pat White flamed out quickly in that role and I’m not sure he would do much better. It’s largely a mystery to me right now. Who knows, he may end up like Michael Vick and being one of those quarterbacks who can legitimately change the way the position is played at the highest level.

Q) If you guys got your flag football team back together what BCS college football team could you beat given home field advantage and you win the coin toss.

A) Well let me start by saying we wouldn’t beat anybody without our awesome fans. There wasn’t a single player on the field who didn’t appreciate the loud pan banging on the sidelines, spurring us to greater athletic heights. If I had to pick one BCS conference school we could beat I would have to say it would be Minnesota (I hate picking on the Big-10, but these guys are awful). Check out their schedule, they started with a come from behind win against Middle Tennessee State, then they lost to the mighty South Dakota Cougars from D-1AA. They followed that with losses to USC, Northern Illinois and Northwestern, bringing them to a pretty bad 1-4. With The Architect at the helm and the great defense we had, I think that we could pull off a win against them, 32-20.

NCAA Week 6 Games of the Week

Posted By: The Rookie

No. 1 Alabama at No. 19 South Carolina: South Carolina has been winning in a very un-Spurrier like fashion, focusing more on a stingy defense rather than an explosive offense. Meanwhile, Alabama announced to the country last weekend that they are one of the best - if not the best - team in the country. The Gamecocks come out fired up, but Mark Ingram and McElroy are way too much to handle. Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide 42 South Carolina Gamecocks 14

Posted by: The Bus Driver

Agreed, Tide Rolls...BIG

No. 12 LSU at No. 14 Florida: LSU has a few quality non-conference wins, but they have been winning their games by the skin of their teeth. Meanwhile, Florida is coming off a beat down of epic proportions and will be hungry for blood. There will be no miracle this week, the Florida defense will stifle the largely ineffective LSU offense and Brantley will rebound from last week's disaster. Meyer won't let them come out flat this week. Prediction: Florida Gators 30 LSU Tigers 13

Am I the only person who thinks that this is the Ho-Hum game of the week? LSU has been winning ugly, but at least they are winning. Florida on the other hand has yet to look impressive at all this season. Myer is being exposed without Superman...LSU wins another ugly and close game.

No. 23 Florida State at No. 13 Miami: This game used to be a huge game every year. Both programs are "down" this year, as is the entire ACC. Florida State has looked strong against mostly sub-par opponents, losing their only big game by a large margin to Oklahoma. Meanwhile Miami looked good against Pitt and decent vs Clemson, but they were embarrassed by Ohio State. Home turf comes up big for the 'Canes in a defensive battle. Prediction: Miami Hurricanes 23 Florida State Seminoles 17

Funny, I feel both these teams are "up" this year as neither team has been relevant for close to a decade. But from what I have seen, Miami is better and look for Harris to return to form. Canes win.

No. 16 Michigan State at No. 17 Michigan: At the end of the day its all going to come down to how well each defense will be able to contain the offense of their opponent. I just don’t think MSU has a quick enough defense to stop the Michigan offense, and I don’t know if Cousins and the rest of the Michigan State offense can keep up in a track meet. State's easy schedule comes back to bite them in the ass, as this is their first road game, and the battle tested Wolverines win one in a thriller (Yeah, I'm a homer, sue me.) Prediction: Michigan Wolverines 42 Michigan State Spartans 35

For the first time that I can remember "Little Brother" scares me this year. They are solid and the believe they can win, which is something I can never remember from them. No I wasn't afraid the last two years because the Wolverines were just bad...and i guess we will find out if we are still bad with this game this year. Our offense run by Shoelace is legit, hell, it even looked good when Tate got some play a few weeks back. But our "D" is horrible. Still, I agree with my brethren when they say they don't think that Sparty can keep up in the shoot out...Plus, I had Jimmy Johns for Lunch today for the first time in 4 years (just opened in AZ) and it was made by someone from A^2. Its a sign...Michigan wins.

Sunday Morning Quarterback

Posted By: The Rookie

What I learned from Saturday's action:

• Alabama is a good football team: And I mean scary good. Granted, Florida has been horrifically overrated all season, playing sub par opponents and scratching out victories. However, they do have a fair amount of talent on that squad and they were completely dismantled. That game was an absolute massacre. Ingram had fairly pedestrian stats (12 rushes – 49 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Alabama still won by 28 points. Auburn may be the only team left that can keep the Tide away from a second national championship game, and the only reason I say that is because it is a rivalry game, and Cam Newton is playing way above his head right now.

• Oregon may be the 2nd best team in the country: You want a dominant performance? Oregon goes down 21-3 in the first quarter. Their response was to simply outscore the ninth ranked Cardinal 49-10 for the rest of the game. I was incredibly impressed especially with the onside kick Chip Kelly called after their first touchdown, which set up a second score and brought the Ducks back into the game. They don’t have much in the way of defense, but their offense is the most explosive in the country, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them vault over Boise State and TCU if they manage to run the table in the Pac-10 in the rankings – although USC getting upset this weekend hurts those chances.

• The Big-XII is having a down year: Texas and Oklahoma played this weekend, did anyone notice? The Sooners managed to hold on in the face of a furious Texas rally and now a collision course with the Cornhuskers in the Big-XII championship game seems immanent. Yet, I ask myself if Oklahoma or Nebraska were able to run the table, would it be enough to put them in the title game ahead of an undefeated Ohio State, Oregon or even TCU and Boise State? The answer right now is undoubtedly no. I can’t remember the last time that I really believed that an undefeated Big-XII champion wouldn’t belong in the national championship, but that is a clear indicator of just how down the conference is this year. They needed to have a strong year from their big names that were staying in the conference, and every game Nebraska wins hurts the conference, which I still don’t think will be around in 5 years.

• The Buckeyes are vulnerable: Ohio State is not nearly as invincible as advertised. Their 24-13 win against Illinois was a lot closer than the scoreboard indicated, as they only had a 4 point lead late in the fourth quarter against a pretty bad Illinois team. Granted, Ohio State does tend to play down at least once or twice a year against Big-10 foes that it should handle easily, however their schedule is not exactly a walk in the park, especially with tough road games in Madison and Iowa City, and Penn State and Michigan at home are not exactly gimmes either. I thought this team would play for the national championship this season at the beginning of the year, but they need to improve a lot if they want to run the table in the resurgent Big-10.

• Michigan State is a darkhorse in the Big-10: At the beginning of the year I had Michigan State penciled in as a contender for the Big-10 title. Their schedule was incredibly favorable (easy non-conference, Wisconsin at home, no Ohio State) and they were returning a lot of talent. I will be the first to admit I didn’t think they would live up to my expectations but they have passed every test sent their way. Now we will see if they can truly contend for the Big-10 title as they have their first road game of the year against the most explosive offense east of the Mississippi. If the Spartans win this weekend there are really only two more tests on the schedule, at Iowa and at Penn State.

• Denard Robinson is still a freak: Seriously, the man is a human highlight reel. He is doing things that no one has ever done and he is doing it as a sophomore. He looks like someone playing a video game against the lowest difficulty setting. The yardage he racks up every week is astonishing, he has led two game winning drives on the road and, most importantly, he is not turning the ball over. One interception against UMass and a fumbled snap against Indiana are the only blemishes against him thus far, and if he can stay healthy, Michigan has a shot at beating any team they play this season.

My Top 5:
1) Alabama
2) Oregon
3) Ohio State
4) Boise State
5) TCU